Discussion of the U.S. Presidential Election 2012
Blog: Betting Odds for 2012 Presidential Election
While it is illegal to bet on U.S. elections in the United States, the rest of the world is fascinated with U.S. Elections and don't have any qualms about betting on our elections. In some ways this is similar to the Nevada laws that make it illegal to vote on any College sporting event in Nevada. I am sure this is to prevent manipulation of amateur athletics. But I am also sure that voting goes on under the table.
There is a sports betting site in Great Britain named WilliamHill.com that posts the betting odds on the 2012 Presidential race. I posted these odds on President2012.ning.com to keep track of the odds over the course of the next four years to see how they change over time. click here to see the current betting odds for the Presidential Election in 2012.
The site takes bets in British Pounds (£) and will pay out based only on who wins the election in 2012. I will not bet on the election, but I will track the odds with great interest.
Since Barack Obama is the president elect, he will be the incumbent and his odds are "even" that he will be re-elected. Obama will be the incumbent with all of the powers and advantages that incumbent holds, and unless something major happens that keeps him from being re-elected, it is logical that he is the odds on favorite in 2012. I don’t think that here at the end of 2008, that anyone would argue this position.
The next two highest odds candidates are Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee that are tied at 8 to 1 odds. This means that if you bet £1 (one British Pound) on either of them and they win that you will be paid back $8. Other than Obama, these two prospective 2012 candidates have the best odds (according to the WilliamHill.com site) of being elected president in 2012.
Next, with slightly lower odds of winning is Sarah Palin with 10 to 1 odds. She is rated 20 percent lower than Romney and Huckabee whose candidacies were beaten out by McCain/Palin. I am intrigued by this rating. Palin was McCain’s VP candidate in 2008 and received lots of publicity and name recognition. She has now become a media darling, after the media shunned her while she was the VP candidate. I think that she and Gov. Huckabee have the same base of conservative evangelical Christians. It will be interesting to see if they compete for this base or if they partner for a 2012 ticket. I see pros and cons to them competing and teaming up.
Next and even more intriguing is the tie in betting odds for Hillary Clinton and Bobby Jindal at 12 to 1 odds. Clinton is now the Secretary of State for the Obama Administration. She was a close runner up to President-Elect Obama. As I have blogged before she was a victim of timing that allowed John Edwards siphon off votes that probably would have gone to and benefitted her before his affair was finally made public. There were probably other issues that should have made the Democratic nomination closer than it turned out to be. However, she is probably still in play for the 2012 presidency, especially if Obama has any slip-ups that impact his re-electability.
Bobby Jindal is also a media darling with lots of grass roots support for a 2012 run. He is also a southern Governor that carries a lot of weight on the national level. I posted another blog that said since Jindal has announced that he .... A run for re-election in 2011 would make a presidential run the next year difficult, but certainly not out of the question. There are some core groups of the Republican Party that would pick Jindal over Romney, Huckabee, and Palin.
Next is Rob Portman, who was a Republican Congressman from Ohio that had also served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the Bush Administration. Prior to this appointment, Portman was the United States Trade Representative, a post carrying the rank of Ambassador. He is a popular conservative that some believe will throw his hat into the ring for president. He is also a favorite for the Governor of Ohio.
Next comes the tie for sixth place in the odds that really got my attention. The 6th place tie is between Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, Condolelza Rice, and Jon Huntsman. Tim Pawlenty was at the top of McCain’s VP list that was ultimately awarded to Sarah Palin. However, Pawlenty was the poster-boy that McCain had on tour with him while he was selecting a VP candidate. Pawlenty got plenty of face time in the national media and many pundits thought him to be a deserving VP pick.
Jeb Bush, the brother of Bush 43 and the son of Bush 41, is said to be the true conservative of the Bush family. He has proven that as Governor of Florida. He doesn’t have the baggage of the current president, George W., or his father George H.W. “read my lips, no new taxes” Bush which he didn’t follow through on. However, he is a Bush and some of the negatives of the other Bush’s won’t wash off of him.
Condolezza Rice has publicly stated that she has no interest in elected office. However, like General Colin Powell, she is well respected and has an impressive resume of her own. She may be content to be a “King Maker” like Powell if she doesn’t enter the race herself.
Jon Huntsman, Jr. surprised me by being tied for 6th with other nationally known figures such as Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, and Condolelza Rice. Huntsman, like Palin, is an extremely popular governor of a small western state. Huntsman has been a U.S. Ambassador and is probably better connected that Palin. His 2nd term in office, which he won by a landslide that any politician would envy, will be up in 2011. Huntsman has made statements that he has no intention of seeking the presidency. However, being a governor of a small elector college state and a Mormon, he has challenges political challenges ahead if he choose to run for the presidency.
After the tie for 6th place in the odds, there are a lot of folks with much lesser chance of winning. Some of the notable names are:
• Joe Biden, Obama’s VP
• Al Gore, the Academy Award Winner for his documentary on Global Warming, and Bill Clinton’s VP
• John Edwards, whose affair with a staffer has probably killed his political future
• Rudolph Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York whose underachieving run for president of 2008 disappointed many who thought he was the Republican favorite in 2008
• JC Watts the former congressman and football star of Oklahoma that would be an interesting debating opponent with fellow African-American Obama
• Arnold Schwarzenegger, but it would take an unlikely change in the constitution to make this happen
• Fred Thompson
• Tom Tancredo
It will be fun to know the major players and watch how they behave and maneuver over the next four years.
http://president2012.ning.com/profiles/blogs/williamhillcom-us-pres...
There is a sports betting site in Great Britain named WilliamHill.com that posts the betting odds on the 2012 Presidential race. I posted these odds on President2012.ning.com to keep track of the odds over the course of the next four years to see how they change over time. click here to see the current betting odds for the Presidential Election in 2012.
The site takes bets in British Pounds (£) and will pay out based only on who wins the election in 2012. I will not bet on the election, but I will track the odds with great interest.
Since Barack Obama is the president elect, he will be the incumbent and his odds are "even" that he will be re-elected. Obama will be the incumbent with all of the powers and advantages that incumbent holds, and unless something major happens that keeps him from being re-elected, it is logical that he is the odds on favorite in 2012. I don’t think that here at the end of 2008, that anyone would argue this position.
The next two highest odds candidates are Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee that are tied at 8 to 1 odds. This means that if you bet £1 (one British Pound) on either of them and they win that you will be paid back $8. Other than Obama, these two prospective 2012 candidates have the best odds (according to the WilliamHill.com site) of being elected president in 2012.
Next, with slightly lower odds of winning is Sarah Palin with 10 to 1 odds. She is rated 20 percent lower than Romney and Huckabee whose candidacies were beaten out by McCain/Palin. I am intrigued by this rating. Palin was McCain’s VP candidate in 2008 and received lots of publicity and name recognition. She has now become a media darling, after the media shunned her while she was the VP candidate. I think that she and Gov. Huckabee have the same base of conservative evangelical Christians. It will be interesting to see if they compete for this base or if they partner for a 2012 ticket. I see pros and cons to them competing and teaming up.
Next and even more intriguing is the tie in betting odds for Hillary Clinton and Bobby Jindal at 12 to 1 odds. Clinton is now the Secretary of State for the Obama Administration. She was a close runner up to President-Elect Obama. As I have blogged before she was a victim of timing that allowed John Edwards siphon off votes that probably would have gone to and benefitted her before his affair was finally made public. There were probably other issues that should have made the Democratic nomination closer than it turned out to be. However, she is probably still in play for the 2012 presidency, especially if Obama has any slip-ups that impact his re-electability.
Bobby Jindal is also a media darling with lots of grass roots support for a 2012 run. He is also a southern Governor that carries a lot of weight on the national level. I posted another blog that said since Jindal has announced that he .... A run for re-election in 2011 would make a presidential run the next year difficult, but certainly not out of the question. There are some core groups of the Republican Party that would pick Jindal over Romney, Huckabee, and Palin.
Next is Rob Portman, who was a Republican Congressman from Ohio that had also served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the Bush Administration. Prior to this appointment, Portman was the United States Trade Representative, a post carrying the rank of Ambassador. He is a popular conservative that some believe will throw his hat into the ring for president. He is also a favorite for the Governor of Ohio.
Next comes the tie for sixth place in the odds that really got my attention. The 6th place tie is between Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, Condolelza Rice, and Jon Huntsman. Tim Pawlenty was at the top of McCain’s VP list that was ultimately awarded to Sarah Palin. However, Pawlenty was the poster-boy that McCain had on tour with him while he was selecting a VP candidate. Pawlenty got plenty of face time in the national media and many pundits thought him to be a deserving VP pick.
Jeb Bush, the brother of Bush 43 and the son of Bush 41, is said to be the true conservative of the Bush family. He has proven that as Governor of Florida. He doesn’t have the baggage of the current president, George W., or his father George H.W. “read my lips, no new taxes” Bush which he didn’t follow through on. However, he is a Bush and some of the negatives of the other Bush’s won’t wash off of him.
Condolezza Rice has publicly stated that she has no interest in elected office. However, like General Colin Powell, she is well respected and has an impressive resume of her own. She may be content to be a “King Maker” like Powell if she doesn’t enter the race herself.
Jon Huntsman, Jr. surprised me by being tied for 6th with other nationally known figures such as Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, and Condolelza Rice. Huntsman, like Palin, is an extremely popular governor of a small western state. Huntsman has been a U.S. Ambassador and is probably better connected that Palin. His 2nd term in office, which he won by a landslide that any politician would envy, will be up in 2011. Huntsman has made statements that he has no intention of seeking the presidency. However, being a governor of a small elector college state and a Mormon, he has challenges political challenges ahead if he choose to run for the presidency.
After the tie for 6th place in the odds, there are a lot of folks with much lesser chance of winning. Some of the notable names are:
• Joe Biden, Obama’s VP
• Al Gore, the Academy Award Winner for his documentary on Global Warming, and Bill Clinton’s VP
• John Edwards, whose affair with a staffer has probably killed his political future
• Rudolph Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York whose underachieving run for president of 2008 disappointed many who thought he was the Republican favorite in 2008
• JC Watts the former congressman and football star of Oklahoma that would be an interesting debating opponent with fellow African-American Obama
• Arnold Schwarzenegger, but it would take an unlikely change in the constitution to make this happen
• Fred Thompson
• Tom Tancredo
It will be fun to know the major players and watch how they behave and maneuver over the next four years.
http://president2012.ning.com/profiles/blogs/williamhillcom-us-pres...
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